Admittedly my scheme for the Real Madrid match was poorly explained, but otherwise I won seven bets in nine midweek La Liga games – an excellent tally considering that I tried to tip a winner in every fixture. This weekend, with smaller teams who lack squad depth playing their third game in a seven days or less, I’ve unusually opted to bet on the ninety minutes market more than once. Covered as they were a prior to midweek, the games are listed categorically below. Good luck if you choose to follow, and don’t forget to follow me at https://twitter.com/#!/JCLaLiga
Games that I have bet on:
Mallorca v Barcelona
After drawing away to Valencia and winning at home to Atletico in successive games, Islanders Mallorca provided another shock (of less magnitude, obviously) by winning 3-2 in Gijon midweek, with Alvaro scoring the winner for Joaquin Caparros’s side.
Today’s visitors to the Island, Barcelona, eventually defeated Granada 5-3 in a game full of goals last Tuesday evening. With three of them was, of course, Messi. Thankfully, as many of you will have seen via my twitter profile, I had bet on that eventuality at 11/2 and went to bed happy as a result!
In conclusion, going for another Messi hat-trick here is probably pushing it too far, and whilst I’m tempted, as is – probably – a both teams to score bet (though Mallorca did score at home to Real before eventually losing).
This is a risky play based on Barca recent away games going under 2.5 goals, but I’m going to take a medium punt based on the idea that pep’s Messi powered troops will make a big impression with eternal rivals Real floundering and the title race wide open again.
Recommendation: Total Barcelona goals over 2.5 at 10/11
Real Madrid v Sociedad
“Slip up again and the title race really is back on” I wrote as the headline for my Wednesday night La Liga previews, and slip up it was. Certainly, I wouldn’t talk you out of a small wager on Barca winning the league after Real’s second 1-1 draw in a row. After all, there’s another Clasico to be played and Real must travel to Bilbao and Pamplona before the season’s out.
Before they go up North, however, Jose and his bad tempered brigade must put the inconsistent Real Sociedad to the sword at the Bernabeu tonight. With confidence slowly ebbing away and the opposition (not openly) less fearful than usual, it’s not the right time to put Real in your accumulators at 1/20. Nonetheless, I’d be stunned if they don’t win tonight.
If this game was at San Sebastian, I’d lay Real. It’s not, though, so the over/under goals market appear to offer our best hopes of winning a bet close to evens. Both teams to score, with a patched up Real defence set to play due to suspensions, could be a good bet, but i’d expect Real to score at least three goals tonight and if Sociedad were to get one we’d go over 3.5 match anyway.
The pressure is on, Jose; make sure your boys bang the goals in tonight!
Recommendation: Over 3.5 goals (5/6)
Getafe v Valencia
Unable to score in Pamplona midweek, Getafe at least gained a point against an Osasuna side that’s always difficult to beat at home. Tonight they host a Valencia side who managed to lose 2-1 at home to a nine man Zaragoza. Stunning you might say. But although I expected a Che win, I knew that they were just the kind of team who can win 3-0 in Bilbao one week then fail to beat a much weaker side at home the next.
When considering bets for today there’s cause for over 2.5 goals and a both teams to score punt based on Valencia’s ability to ship late second half goals, along with each team scoring in five of the last six head to head matches, but Los Che have kept clean sheets in recent away games and generally seem to perform better on the road.
After losing at home to a nine man team bound for the Segunda, it’d be just like Valencia to go and win the next game when you think there’d greater validity in another upset. Heck, even Soldado should score today, probably first.
Recommendation: Valencia (6/4)
Zaragoza v Atletico
While goalkeeper Roberto made several excellent saves in Zaragoza’s 2-1 away win at Valencia midweek, nine man Zaragoza were lucky to leave the Mestalla with any points at all. Ask, though, and it seems you shall receive against Valencia – a team ridiculously adept at throwing away winning positions on home ground.
Atleti, though defeated away at Mallorca last weekend, should prove too much for Zaragoza with Falcao, Arda and Diego all expected to play. I’d like to take on over 2.5 goals as my bet in truth, but the stats say it’ll get beaten this time and a 2-0 Atletico win with Falcao scoring first seems about right. Let’s just hope that backing Atletico doesn’t, as it so often has throughout history, prove to be a letdown again.
Recommendation: Atletico Madrid (17/20)
Worth a small punt: Falcao to score first (3/1)
Espanyol v Malaga
Going a goal down early on Espanyol eventually defeat Racing 3-1 in Barcelona, with my over 2.5 goals bet winning before half time. Today’s opponents Malaga also went a goal down before winning a goals bet for me, once again before half time.
Seems appropriate, then, that I cut this short and just say I’ve concluded that both teams to score is the best bet. I might yet add over 2.5 goals and Coutinho first/anytime scorer, but for now this is the standout pick and main recommendation.
Recommendation: Both teams to score (4/6)
Levante v Osasuna
Their opponents, Sociedad, ended the game with ten men, but Levante probably would have won anyway and must be given credit for recent results. Written off countless times by myself and a number of other scribes, they’ll lose a couple of games and then start winning again!
Anyway, my bet in that game, both teams to score, won within eleven minutes so no complaints overall. Osasuna, however, I have complaint with after they failed to at home to Getafe, but move on I must.
In conclusion, this game sounds like a draw to me, and that might be the best route to take. For my money, though, I’d like to get paid back for the midweek both teams to score failure on Pamplona. It’s not without statistical justification either as both teams have scored in five of the last six matchups between these two. Just a pity Osasuna are still missing their top scorer Lekic.
Recommendation: Both teams to score (5/6)
Rayo v Villarreal
After taking the lead through Diego Costa, Rayo later conceded to given me a 6/4 winner with my chosen bet of over 1.5 first half goals. I knew that Malaga would go on to win with the score 1-1 at half time, but I’d won my bet and opted to just stop betting as planned.
The day before Rayo’s eventual 4-2 away defeat at Malaga, Villarreal and their 0-0 draw specialist new coach Lotina had drawn 1-1 at home to Real Madrid. Veteran free kick specialist Marcos Senna scored to level the tie, and it must be said that Villarreal played quite well in the game – particularly in the first half.
In assessing this matchup i’d be inclined to be favour goals or BTTS, but as you know I don’t like to oppose a new coach in his first few games so I’m inclined to instead lay Rayo on the betting exchanges.
Recommendation: Lay Rayo or back double chance- Villarreal or draw at 4/5
Games that I have yet to bet on:
Athletic v Sporting
No Llorente, no goal. In reality this was disproved by my both teams to score bet winning in Bilbao’s 2-1 midweek defeat in Madrid with the big man absent. However, it’s clear to see that this theory isn’t without merit. Sure, Athletic are running on empty due to a congestion fixture list, but big Nando is the focal point of their attack and crucial to the teams hopes of scoring goals and winning games.
Against Athletic old boy Clemente’s uncharacteristically leaky Sporting side today, though, win they should. But can we trust them to win a minus one goal handicap bet, or even to lead at half time? You’d think so, but it’s something I’m going to think on and make a decision on before the game is played via twitter.
In the meantime, I have a feeling that Javi Martinez will score in this game. Just a hunch though, could mean nothing.
Betis v Racing
Privately, i’d earmarked the due a goal Ruben Castro as my first scorer bet in the midweek Betis v Espanyol clash, but with the game 0-0 at half time I instead left my both teams to score bet to run and it paid dividends with the game ending in a 1-1 draw.
In the Racing v Sevilla game played at the same time, i’d strained my grey matter to find a bet for this contest and concluded that both teams to score – for half the stake used in the Betis game – was the best option.
With a goal ruled out, red card and several excellent saves from the Sevilla keeper, that bet proved to be the wrong option. Never mind, I was stretching it by making a recommendation in every game, but we were unlucky to lose.
Now in today’s game we should see a Betis HT/FT win with Ruben Castro scoring, but there’s just something about a team who hasn’t won in ages playing against one of the teams I support, so I’m going to reserve judgement for the time being and decide via twitter prior to the game.
Granada v Sevilla
In the reverse fixture earlier this season, Granada were 1-0 down after only a minute, but managed an amazing comeback in the last ten to win 2-1. This time, however, with key Granada player Carlos Martins suspended, Sevilla should get their revenge.
Often inconsistent at home, Sevilla have done well in recent away fixtures as wins at Valencia and Racing testify. Today I expect them to continue winning ways, but might yet back over 2.5 goals instead. I’ll wait for team news before making a decision via twitter.
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